On the second day of the BrightSpace Annual Meeting, the afternoon session was dedicated to joint discussions between the BrightSpace and LAMASUS projects. The session included key presentations on the status of baseline development, challenges, and the integration of CAP Strategic Plans into agricultural models.
Key Highlights of Presentations
BrightSpace-LAMASUS Baseline Status by Peter Witzke, Guna Salputra, Jonathan Doelman: This presentation provided an overview of progress in aligning the BAU (Business-As-Usual) baseline across multiple models, addressing inconsistencies, and harmonizing macrovariables. Collaborative efforts have focused on improving data consistency to support robust future scenario analyses.
More Challenging Baseline by Willem-Jan van Zeist, Peter Witzke, and Tamás Krisztin: This scenario incorporates real-world geopolitical and economic disruptions to provide a more realistic projection of global agricultural outcomes. Key challenges include energy price volatility, geopolitical fragmentation, and increased trade uncertainties. Insights from MAGNET modelling highlighted:
- Increased emissions and resource use in SSP3 due to higher livestock production and calorie demands.
- Reversed reductions in fertilizer and pesticide use compared to SSP2.
- Improved wage development in agriculture under SSP3, with a slower decline in labor force participation in livestock sectors.
The analysis underscored the need for adaptive policy responses to manage compounded risks.
Deep Dive into Baseline Comparisons and Analysis by Peter Witzke: This presentation emphasized the importance of refining baseline alignment to reduce inconsistencies. Progress included the application of criteria to identify critical misalignments (“level differences” and “change differences”) and prioritization of variables with high global or regional importance. Challenges persist in fully harmonizing model outputs, requiring targeted improvements in projections, data mapping, and addressing overlooked factors like energy price outlooks.
Implementation of CAP Strategic Plans in the Agrilink-Cosimo Model by Ignacio Pérez Dominguez, Beatrice Farkas, Chrisitan Elleby: This session detailed how CAP Strategic Plans are being integrated into agricultural models to enhance their realism and applicability. The implementation focuses on capturing the strategic priorities of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) within the Agrilink-Cosimo framework to better inform policy and scenario development.
Key Takeaways and Next Steps
- Enhanced Modelling: Harmonization across multiple modelling frameworks is critical for robust scenario testing. Further improvements in projections and targeted alignment actions are needed.
- Adapting to Complexity: The “Challenging Baseline” reflects the compounded impacts of geopolitical and economic disruptions, highlighting the importance of integrating real-world complexities into agricultural models.
- Policy Integration: Incorporating CAP Strategic Plans demonstrates the potential for aligning policy goals with modelling frameworks to guide informed decision-making.
- Future Preparations: The session emphasized readiness for testing new scenarios and integrating dynamic variables like energy prices into future analyses.
This collaborative effort underscores the importance of harmonized methodologies and realistic baselines for addressing global agricultural challenges effectively.
