On 24 June 2025, the BrightSpace consortium held its kick-off meeting for Work Package 10 (WP10), marking the start of a key phase in shaping the project’s forward-looking scenario narratives. The session aimed to refine core ideas ahead of the upcoming September stakeholder retreat and to lay the groundwork for timely delivery of Task 10.1 in spring 2026. This will ensure the modelling activities (Task 10.2) have sufficient time to integrate the narratives meaningfully.
Participants reviewed the objectives and timeline of WP10 and focused on key conceptual issues, including the structure of scenario narratives, the use of uncertainty axes, and the relevance of “siloed” versus “holistic” framings. While the narrative set-up was broadly accepted, there were calls for clearer language and stronger identification of synergies and trade-offs across scenarios.
A lively exchange explored how best to incorporate baseline assumptions—particularly in relation to energy and fertiliser prices, trade shocks, and population dynamics. The group largely agreed on including selected negative pressures for sensitivity analysis, tailored to each storyline. There was also interest in expanding the modelling scope to capture dynamic feedbacks and better understand the contribution of individual drivers to outcomes.
Policy considerations such as the size of the CAP budget and EU enlargement featured prominently, with views differing on how these should be integrated into the long-term narratives. While no consensus was reached, the discussion reaffirmed the project’s openness to exploring bold and unconventional ideas.
Looking ahead, the next meeting (scheduled for 21 July) will continue work on refining lever settings, aligning narrative impacts with project indicators, and deepening the discussion around key uncertainties and assumptions. The goal is to co-develop robust, diverse, and policy-relevant scenarios in close collaboration with stakeholders.
Source: CITA
