On 23 March 2026, Tamás Krisztin presented new research at the 100th annual conference of the Agricultural Economics Society in Oxford. The paper — jointly developed within BrightSpace, ACT4CAP27 and LAMASUS—delivers a rigorous multi-model assessment of uncertainty in EU agricultural futures.
The study, “Do the differences matter? A multi-model assessment of uncertainty in EU agricultural futures,” compares harmonised baseline projections from six leading modelling frameworks (AGLINK-COSIMO, AGMEMOD, CAPRI, GLOBIOM, IMAGE and MAGNET). By aligning assumptions on population, economic growth, productivity trends and current policies, the analysis isolates how structural differences between models shape projections for production, land use, emissions, trade and prices.
Why this matters
Baseline projections are the backbone of EU agricultural policy analysis. They underpin assessments of CAP reforms, climate targets and trade developments. This paper demonstrates that while some aggregate trends are robust across models—such as yield-driven output growth, modest land contraction, and slight declines in EU agricultural emissions—other outcomes vary significantly depending on modelling architecture.
In particular:
- Robust signals at EU level: productivity-led growth and modest emission reductions
- High uncertainty domains: trade balances, commodity composition, and Member State-level impacts
- Policy implication: single-model results can be reliable for headline trends, but multi-model comparisons are essential where structural sensitivity is high
A “challenging baseline” for today’s policy context
A key contribution of the paper is the inclusion of a structurally adverse scenario featuring:
- sustained increases in energy and fertiliser prices
- growing trade fragmentation
- intensified climate impacts
This “challenging baseline” is especially relevant in the context of the ongoing energy crisis and expected continued pressure on input markets. The findings show that while some core dynamics persist, uncertainty increases in critical areas such as trade and commodity shifts—reinforcing the need for plural modelling approaches in policy interpretation.
BrightSpace contribution
The presentation highlights BrightSpace’s central role in advancing evidence-based, policy-relevant foresight for EU agriculture. By working across projects and modelling communities, BrightSpace contributes to a more transparent understanding of where projections are robust—and where uncertainty must be explicitly accounted for in decision-making.
Further dissemination of the paper will follow once the embargo is lifted.
