Published in Nature (14 May 2025, Open Access)
Read the article: Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries
An open-access study in Nature, led by Detlef P. van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), analyses how global society could develop sustainably while remaining within the limits of Earth’s systems. Among the co-authors are BrightSpace partners Jonathan Doelman and Elke Stehfest (PBL), and Willem-Jan van Zeist (WSER).
Using the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), the study explores how eight of the nine planetary boundaries — including climate change, biodiversity loss, and nutrient cycles — might evolve under alternative socioeconomic and policy scenarios up to 2050. The results indicate that current trajectories would further intensify planetary pressures, but that coordinated policy action — on climate, food systems, and resource use — could move humanity toward a safer and more sustainable development path.
The research connects closely to BrightSpace Work Package 6 (Safe Space Model Upgrade and Indicators), led by PBL. WP6 aims to expand and enhance the BrightSpace Toolbox to better model the safe operating space for EU agriculture, focusing on solutions and indicators related to water, nutrients, pollution, biodiversity, and other key environmental domains. Insights from global-scale analyses such as this Nature study strengthen BrightSpace’s capacity to assess how Europe can stay within its safe and just operating space through evidence-based policy and innovation.
🔗 Full citation:
van Vuuren, D. P., Doelman, J. C., Tagomori, I. S., Beusen, A. H. W., Cornell, S. E., Röckström, J., Schipper, A. M., Stehfest, E., Ambrosio, G., van den Berg, M., Bouwman, L., Daioglou, V., Harmsen, M., Lucas, P., van der Wijst, K.-I., & van Zeist, W.-J. (2025). Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries. Nature, 641, 910–916. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08928-w
This article is also available at the BrightSpace Zenodo Community page: https://zenodo.org/communities/brightspace-eu-project/
Source: PBL
